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this one yes um thank you parson thank you very much for the invitation
00:00:07
i i'm really delighted to be here i feel on into regards like
00:00:12
i'm gate crashing your your meeting a little bit and i said that because
00:00:16
person imax in wasn't march and i mean monica we're piracy conference
00:00:21
and uh we got to chatting and he said i should visit switzerland at some point unless it in
00:00:25
actual fact i happen to be coming to switzerland september because i'm on holiday with my family
00:00:31
and he said well when when uh what are the dates and i said well we're on holiday from i think there's an a ninth september
00:00:37
and so the twenty first bicycle that happens to be a conference that starts in the twenty first why don't you
00:00:41
come along and so i was just over the mountains and gemini and yeah and so that's number one
00:00:47
and the materials i look at the uh i look at the program that parson
00:00:51
the team is put together for you and some of the outstanding speakers
00:00:54
and i do feel a incapable of contributing to this topic in
00:00:58
the way that they can because i'm from south africa
00:01:02
where we have no infrastructure to do talent research uh with with the
00:01:07
possible exception of of this our main sport which is right b.
00:01:11
uh which some might have so many of you haven't really been exposed to it's in the olympics nasa you will be in future uh up
00:01:18
um but we have no it we have no infrastructure no
00:01:21
resources with which to do the kind of details
00:01:25
talent id work that some of the speakers of the next day and a half to be able to speak about
00:01:31
so when jason studies talk talking about a microscope and a kaleidoscope i was relieved because
00:01:36
i have no microscope all i have is this is this big picture view
00:01:40
and so that's the focus of what i want to try and talk to about in this presentation it's
00:01:44
the it's the business of talent and the reason i think like this is because when i was
00:01:48
finishing up my p. h. d. in two thousand six i had a sort of quarter life crisis and
00:01:53
i left academia to go into the world of sports business another post graduate in management studies
00:02:00
and then worked in sports sponsorship an acid agencies and so my thinking was
00:02:04
very much informant by that business type approach the economics of talents id
00:02:09
and so when we think about the purpose of talent identification i think there
00:02:13
are three levels at which you can pitch it on over simplifying slightly
00:02:17
number one is that the operational level that's the microscope and again
00:02:21
mine is nonexistent but there are people in this room
00:02:25
and he will hear from who will give you a lot of detail but that's basically how do
00:02:28
we identify select and then manage young athletes in to senior level with maximum efficiency and effectiveness
00:02:35
then there's the tactical purposes talent id which in my opinion
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is to take those scarce resources people facilities money
00:02:43
and direct them towards getting maxim overturns and optimising feature
00:02:47
planning in in in which case one which sends
00:02:51
talent ideas uh budgeting decision it's hard you allocate resources
00:02:55
and then of course there's the strategic reason for talent id which is to gain a competitive advantage
00:03:01
and that's what teams the boss alone isn't the madrid and the men just united and a little pools and sign
00:03:06
have got academies and then invest money and flying scott's all around the world is because they're looking to one
00:03:11
so that's the strategic purpose and another sound very much at the top two levels
00:03:16
of these in terms of my thinking out of necessity in south africa
00:03:20
and so it was interesting to me to read just a week ago there's a there's a premier league soccer team called had had his field in
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england not not the design to for me like football they're promoted last season
00:03:31
and i've made a decision that they're gonna shut down their academy
00:03:35
why because they've had so few youngsters making it from the academy into the first teams that
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this is a failure of efficiency of the academy to produce results
00:03:45
and so therefore the businessman who's the chairman or yeah believes
00:03:48
that it's better to spend the academy manage money elsewhere
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unfortunately the article didn't tell me how much does it cost to bowl the football or as a cause as
00:03:57
opposed to how much it cost to buy a football 'cause i think that would be really interesting
00:04:02
whatever the answer to that is he's decided we're gonna buy we're not gonna both and they're
00:04:06
not the only ones there's a few other clubs that have adopted a similar similar approach
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no reason that's fascinating to me is because on very much as a say interested in this idea of
00:04:16
efficiency and input versus output and this is a photograph of a copper mine in the democratic republic of congo
00:04:23
and one of my good friends from captain actually was the financial director copper mine in the congo and then
00:04:28
if there's this one at google does it mean she didn't provide it but he's it's only stories about
00:04:33
his his job was about efficiency and then you on this copper mine that for every
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one hundred tons of war that extracted from the uh
00:04:42
if they had to produce two tons of copper
00:04:47
so that we're working on a two percent efficiency one town of copper had to be produced from fifty tons of all
00:04:53
and so pretty much everything they did on that mine was figuring out ways
00:04:57
how to achieve that target that were measured and they lived and died
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by the ability to extract mine and then finds reduce the couple
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no that's the same prices that's happening in talent uh d. and all of you are coaches
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you are involved in the mining in finding which is the equivalent of the development and management of talent
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and as i say on the copper mine in the congo they worked as a percentage and the objective because i
00:05:22
knew that if they could improve that percentage that the prophet go that that's what they lived and died by
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i mean we're giving a talk once for the english rugby football in and talents i'd be in one
00:05:31
of the other speakers it worked in united states is the hate for talent id for tennis
00:05:37
and she said that in her time there that had three thousand athletes
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come three and four of them had made the will stop fifty
00:05:44
so they're working on for the three thousand as opposed to two percent in a couple months it's even worse
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and so so just on this on this issue of of management mining inner
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finding there is a third element which is the focus of my talk
00:05:58
which is actually the identification of way to mine in the first place because you can't go outside here in big for copper
00:06:04
and have to cheat tips inefficiency you have to start by looking in the right places and that's what talent id is
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now there are some who would have you believe the talent id need not
00:06:14
exist because the argument is all about on the right yeah the performance
00:06:19
anytime into expert performance is achieved through practised the line
00:06:23
and jason say that it doesn't wanna talk about this neither do i but i have to bring this
00:06:27
up because it isn't it it is an argument that coaches worth over fade in the last decade
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as a result of books that are written and all articles
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that were published talking about how talented does not exist
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but anyone provided they do enough tractors can achieve expect performance
00:06:46
no the this argument to me is ridiculous because it unnecessarily parlour as the
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issue to those who believe that performance is all about talent which is
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nobody reviewer coach sitting in the truman you think performance is all about
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talent i've got news for you you've just met you self redundant
00:07:04
so that's that's one problem but not one guy didn't believe anyone has ever said that
00:07:09
in a person can get off the couch in the world are lumpy champ so
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it's a stupid argument to begin with but on the other side is this argument that it's all about the software but it's all about the training that we do
00:07:20
and it does take a message for me is that these either or scenarios
00:07:24
where we polar uh something to a or b. those are almost always
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incorrect when you're part of the complex outcome so don't waste time and as and just very
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briefly on the pride grand side the most famous example that's this ten thousand our concept
00:07:39
this is a graph that was re drawn from a study done in nineteen ninety three
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by and is erickson when you went to school of music in berlin any ask the twenty year olds who about
00:07:49
the study vile and how many hours that track to since the started and sure enough he finds this
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separation that the basic violinists charts but the music teachers had accumulated just over ten
00:08:01
thousand other factors by the time they studied the the instrument a university
00:08:05
where is the good players and the least accomplished players had only done eight and five thousand and so
00:08:11
while it was not specifically and is erikson who turn this into the two thousand our rule
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this was the foundation for it and this is not a presentation critiquing this this model but suffice to
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say that there are many frozen and holes and and and things in this in this argument
00:08:29
but we now know that it does not take ten thousand us to achieve expertise
00:08:33
and the reason that becomes important will be hit complete a little bit later
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but the same type in you see the opposite argument made foolishly this
00:08:40
is an article i read just yesterday the twenty first september
00:08:44
a journalist in the paper in england saying plot must realised that's you can copy coaches liverpool in england
00:08:50
that nurture really conquers nature at this level no i i actually agree with that
00:08:54
but in the context of this article what he's written yeah is that the private acceptance that magic in really can't
00:09:01
'cause next at this level off to a football is littered with stories of talent that did not make it
00:09:05
but less so with tales of the play everyone thought was not good enough but he was transformed with a bit of t. l. c.
00:09:11
no that's not necessarily false but i don't know how reporter can make this call
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like the the the the point out mike about this is that once you're in professional football
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the difference between a super star on the net and the guard is not quite gonna make it is so small that it's very difficult to judge talent
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and so i bring this up to make the point that our
00:09:30
ability to judge talent in very narrow bands is extremely power
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and so this is a rather bold assertion that he's made on the opposite argument that it's all about the talent right
00:09:42
so where does that leave us it leaves us understanding the just like mining
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requires a certain amount of looking for the basic thing to mine
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so to talent id is important for sports so therefore there's a reason for it
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why is the reason for twelve to me trying to steal this simply as i
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possibly can twenty first to september twenty seventeen today in twenty twenty eight
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let's call it that the summer olympic games your hope is that an attic so maybe hasn't
00:10:09
for this audience we should be talking twenty fifty at the winter olympics with those maybe
00:10:14
we need to have a athlete on top of the podium winning an olympic gold medal well title whatever the cases
00:10:20
that gives you eleven years from this point forward talents id is the simple question
00:10:27
based on the fact that we know that let's say the peak age of performance for that person is twenty five
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therefore by definition there fourteen today talent id in my opinion can be
00:10:37
well done to the question is where is that person right now
00:10:41
where is that person right now no as i say in south africa we have no idea
00:10:46
we don't know our strategy is for someone to get down on the news every night and pray
00:10:51
so that someone will discover wait for mechanic and sure enough sometimes it works sometimes that there's not
00:10:56
a strategy i hope that you've got a plan because if you can answer that question
00:11:02
vaguely then you anyway that's the starting point for talented eat
00:11:06
they are now going to be a number of subsequent questions that have to
00:11:10
be honest does he or she looked like a future champion yet
00:11:13
there's a good chance that they don't you see next what's next is a difficult
00:11:16
because how does your system accommodate the person who doesn't look like a
00:11:20
champion in fourteen but will be at twenty five that's that's that's one of the key things you gotta think about in terms of a systems approach
00:11:27
do we have the tools to identify him over at fourteen
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and sixteen at eighteen whenever that that case maybe
00:11:35
i mean once identified what should he or she do for the thirteen years of eleven years whatever it
00:11:39
is and that's where you come that's the talent development and the management side of things right
00:11:45
not let's think talent id now that as i said to me
00:11:48
talent ideas uh budgeting decisions that exists to allocate scarce resources
00:11:54
to where it is most likely to be a fruit so in a group of so arbitrarily hypothetically
00:12:00
three hundred people we cannot support every single one of those how many can we support
00:12:06
it would be wonderful to support a hundred out of three hundred pick it would be great to support three hundred
00:12:11
but we can't so let's say we can any support thirty talent id is the full to
00:12:16
that is going to cut three hundred down to thirty and as an are going
00:12:20
to be our so called chosen ones to whom we can begin to allocate
00:12:24
all the resources and so that's why i say talents id to me is a budgeting decision
00:12:29
which determines who gets the support when do they get and how is it the love it to them
00:12:35
and they're obviously going to be within the framework of those questions certain risks that
00:12:39
i can and i just wanna go through wannabes examples this is that
00:12:43
this is what i was rugby union have adopted for the what
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i call longterm athlete development which which is the kind of
00:12:49
now that i've seen jason present to supplements um if met equate
00:12:54
equivalent problem show your familiar or seen longterm method development
00:12:59
also breaks people's development down into different stages based on age with different
00:13:04
purposes of goals and i just want to point out to you
00:13:07
but from twelve to fourteen is the period of like child
00:13:11
really puberty with a charger supposed to explore teach and
00:13:15
the game is meant to be structured for the first time so there's a supposed to
00:13:18
be in the theoretical will what the child needs to do now the ice
00:13:24
is a photograph of a rugby match in south africa
00:13:29
where the guy in the middle is the adult thirty to audrey free
00:13:34
and means to play is that the coin toss or twelve years old and they're
00:13:38
about to playback big and not get many of you don't understand swore
00:13:41
i'd be dragged is about size and strength and speed and power so that's
00:13:46
located at the coin toss is hoping not to have a confrontation with
00:13:51
he's just but the point and and and use look at this and there are other examples around the world with with jason from australia they've
00:13:58
got a massive problem because you've got all the tonkin kids and the pacific islanders coming across and you see the same thing because of
00:14:04
biological differences in maturation between different ethnic groups and that's what's happening yeah this is an afrikaans boy
00:14:11
and this is an english skin like detained to not always but they tend to develop a different right
00:14:17
now the question to you is the coaches of your coaching the team and you've got a place a bit because
00:14:21
that's basically what it is on one of these players being super star which one is it gonna be
00:14:26
and the and and this is i'm again i'm i'm parlour wasn't for the sake of argument but let's
00:14:31
say you can only dates on one because the pot of gold that you have is not infinite
00:14:37
it's not an infinite part of resources and so wise this isn't so challenging because every single one of
00:14:43
you in this room know that in five years time this kid could well of course up
00:14:48
in physical development and by the time he catches that he's learned so much from france day life
00:14:54
and he's probably developing skills and mental abilities and decision making that by the time these
00:15:01
kids uh eighteen is a good probability that this is your superstar not here
00:15:07
but in the real world not the theoretical one in the real world this is where most of us would put our money
00:15:14
especially when as the coach your job is to have this guy's team won and now
00:15:19
and there is no foresight do is no long term incentive for you to change your behaviour so that's really important things that
00:15:25
it's challenging because we have limited resources it's a zero sum game
00:15:30
not was obviously but it is in the sense that when you pick one it means one less place for someone else
00:15:36
so my entry means your exits and and such talent uh that's
00:15:40
one of the problems and thirdly as we had imprecise tools
00:15:44
the crystal ball is no good it's not it's not able to see into the future very well
00:15:49
so the talents id risks then when we make that selection awful me the
00:15:54
three of them wasn't inclusion error where we identify the wrong person
00:16:00
there is an exclusion error we we fail to identify the right person and those two are opposite
00:16:06
sides of the same coin and then there's a third one way we identify too infrequently
00:16:12
and so we make the call once and based on that we create a fork in the road with
00:16:16
the people we choose the included go this way and the people who we exclude got that way
00:16:23
and the result is that the resources that are given to them are completely disparate because of one decision
00:16:28
and if there's one thing you can remember is that once you've excluded people you have to think about
00:16:33
how you might bring them back in the future and others make the call more than once
00:16:38
and then the final one so those are the talent id risks and then the
00:16:42
final one is that once we've made our selections your in your knots
00:16:47
we fell to provide the right and the the correct environment for both of them
00:16:52
because it's easy to think about what we should give to us superstars at the age of twelve thirteen it's less easy to think
00:16:59
about what we should give the people we didn't pick and how do we keep them viable for as long as possible
00:17:06
so that's a talent development argument not again over the course of the next few days a lot of these
00:17:10
concepts will be explored and we can certainly discuss them all in a in a discussion tomorrow night
00:17:16
only given example of how this plays out in south african rugby so we haven't south
00:17:21
african and and the thirteen competition for schoolboys to national we each of the provinces
00:17:27
selected the best players that they have available and i got a place and then play against one another
00:17:33
we have the same competition at sixteen and then we have the same competition that eighteen so that's quite a
00:17:38
nice way to track the cough of a young person who might into the system and waited in that
00:17:44
so the question is in two thousand five there are three hundred forty
00:17:47
nine young and fit implies of the tournaments in south africa
00:17:52
the question is how many of them are gonna come up to this is the start of the partway easily
00:17:57
i hate to use the word elite with jordan but these are the lead directly plank it's in south africa
00:18:02
the question is how many of them are still in the system by the age of eighteen and we know this because the study was done on this
00:18:07
and the answer is about one in four so eighty for the initial three hundred forty nine make it to the age of eighteen
00:18:14
i don't know what happens beyond that unfortunately 'cause that's the key is what happens once they leave school but we don't uh
00:18:21
so that means the two hundred and sixty five seventy six percent and gotten lost and so
00:18:26
some way in this part where they've left the system then along in the base delete
00:18:30
what's really interesting is because we've got this and the sixteen competition we know the
00:18:35
that a hundred and ten of them within the system by sixteen which means
00:18:39
that's two hundred and thirty nine will last from fifteen to sixteen
00:18:44
and only twenty six more will last from sixteen to eighteen
00:18:48
and so the inefficiency in the system exists because the selection
00:18:51
of talent was my two young okay so than others
00:18:55
and and you know why the says you know why you look at those the picture i showed you earlier
00:19:00
of the two thirteen euros you know why from thirteen to
00:19:04
sixteen has a higher dropout than from sixteen to eighteen
00:19:08
it's because we cannot make an accurate even even up to sixteen it's not perfect but we cannot make
00:19:14
an accurate diagnosis or production of who's going to express talents and off to adolescence
00:19:21
and all the physiological physical psychological changes that got come along with that that's really important since then
00:19:27
so if your main purpose in a talented the system was to
00:19:31
maximise efficiency than the longer you wait for the better
00:19:35
however in the real world waiting is probably not a good thing before going to that two or three
00:19:41
things we don't know in the system number one is we don't know a way these kids come
00:19:47
from because they were still three hundred forty nine it sixteen but only a hundred and ten of
00:19:51
them are carried over it means the two hundred and thirty nine of them a new arrivals
00:19:56
we don't know who they are with a with a goatee 'cause the study wasn't set up to answer that question
00:20:01
we also don't know what happens to these kids as i mentioned off to the leave school which is kind of important
00:20:07
and then the final thing is efficiency doesn't tell you anything about the quality
00:20:12
of the output because ultimately what you're interested in in this case is for south africa too when
00:20:18
the rugby world cup and you don't need a lot of players to win the rugby world cup you need fifteen
00:20:24
so you can be absolutely dreadful with efficiency as long as the
00:20:27
nor point north one percent that make it all the based
00:20:31
and so that's one of the things that coaches are constantly dealing with is do you want to lots of people
00:20:36
what do you want a small number of really really really good people would you rather
00:20:40
have one atlantic champion or teen world class cues you never won an olympic medal
00:20:44
that's that's the dilemma i so that's that's a real issue to grapple with
00:20:49
so we come back to this in our clothes off on this issue uh the chaise would you
00:20:53
buy because that's what this is this is a this is a decision to purchase chaise
00:20:57
and the reason it's difficult is because as i say limited resources and so what's
00:21:02
happened is that we've driven and we've created this race to the bottom
00:21:07
this kid sorry let me give it up i guarantee you that this child's parents were contacted
00:21:12
when he was ten or eleven to ask him if you would go to the school
00:21:16
so he was basically boards by school at the age of ten or eleven years of professional athletes
00:21:22
doesn't anything else the place is gonna parse coup obviously but that's all is pretty much doing
00:21:26
and so this is real race to the bottom i don't know if it's the same
00:21:29
here in switzerland output hasn't reached that level it but a suspected probably yes
00:21:34
is that the the rest of the bottom of the key reason for that is that
00:21:38
the the the present incentives exist and that was the coach of that boy school
00:21:42
has only got one incentive and that's to win at fifteen years old and so it it creates these top down when you
00:21:50
get incentives and there's no bottom up incentive to say how can i as the coach of a thirteen year old
00:21:55
make sure that i'm gonna produce a great eighteen year old integrate twenty
00:21:58
five euro that incentive doesn't exist in sport and it would
00:22:01
be useful to create and it's and the second point is oh it's last off is that it's driven by here we go
00:22:09
this is all driven by opportunity cost and fear in the same way that venture capitalism is
00:22:14
so is you don't wait for face book to be listed on the stock exchange before you buy the shape
00:22:19
you're trying to if you wanna make the most money as possible by before it becomes big and it's the same with young athletes is that
00:22:25
it's cheaper to get them when they're very young men to get them
00:22:28
and realise you just those little messy cost pasta lana comparatively little
00:22:33
whereas if you bought a night cost and with my name off it's not a good really good example of that
00:22:38
so my pen in this too much inertia in the system to change that's that's i believe that the solution is
00:22:43
to turn inefficiencies opt into opportunities and the way to do this but just summarise this part where yeah
00:22:49
is that it every single stage of the performance partway as we trim numbers from a
00:22:54
hundred to thirty to twenty to fall there are people who are being filtered out
00:22:59
you know it's these are these are people who will initially identified as being potentially good athletes
00:23:05
and over time they are filtered out quite a system that's that's talent id working effectively
00:23:10
but what it does is it creates an army of these people that i'm
00:23:13
calling the ghosts and those guys are really interesting to me because
00:23:19
these people are those you've expressed some athletic ability
00:23:23
and we've been been lost to the system or to the first one we don't know why that will last with
00:23:28
a last because that was simply not good enough to begin with because we were misled bubble out biological development
00:23:35
all with the last because the environment that that we given was not good enough if it's the latter
00:23:40
when these people are a huge resource for support system to capitalised on so the christ and
00:23:46
machine and and with the exception of the primary sports like rugby in south africa
00:23:50
my sports cannot afford to have too many guys do you have to keep them involved
00:23:55
and so what i think would be prudent is to capitalised on the ghost that we created elsewhere
00:24:00
and convert them into adult athletes that if i was a sport like growing or kayaking or swimming in south africa
00:24:06
i would be looking at drag these ghosts to find my next generation refuges basically what i'm getting at
00:24:12
and so that's what i wanna leave this is a very high level picture of how i think talented he works this tremendous
00:24:18
detail that we can go into and you will be lucky enough to learn about an expert so the next few days
00:24:24
and i'm on the penultimate not someone happy to take some questions about how this might be a chief but for
00:24:28
now let me finish off and say thank you very much i'll just put a cover slide i think we're

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Conference Program

Welcome
Frederic Koehn, President Young Athletes Forum Foundation
21 Sept. 2017 · 1:18 p.m.
3,172 views
Opening address
Boris GOJANOVIC
21 Sept. 2017 · 1:22 p.m.
136 views
Biological Maturation and the Path to Success: Before and After the Fact
Manuel COELHO-E-SILVA, Biological Maturation and the Path to Success: Before and After the Fact
21 Sept. 2017 · 1:31 p.m.
570 views
Designing pathways to success – part kaleidoscope, part microscope
Jason GULBIN, Designing pathways to success – part kaleidoscope, part microscope
21 Sept. 2017 · 1:53 p.m.
431 views
Talent ID and Development: Why doing the “right thing” is not always the “best thing
Ross TUCKER , Talent ID and Development: Why doing the “right thing” is not always the “best thing
21 Sept. 2017 · 2:16 p.m.
355 views
111 views
Resistance training during long-term athlete development
Urs GRANACHER
21 Sept. 2017 · 2:52 p.m.
386 views
The development of aerobic power in young athletes
Grégoire MILLET
21 Sept. 2017 · 3:15 p.m.
1,494 views
Fueling the young athlete
Asker JEUKENDRUP
21 Sept. 2017 · 3:36 p.m.
196 views
Training young athletes: challenges and opportunities
Marco CARDINALE
21 Sept. 2017 · 4:01 p.m.
187 views
TRAINING THE YOUNG ATHLETE - Q&A
Panel
21 Sept. 2017 · 4:33 p.m.
Coaching from junior to the top of the world (Lara Gut)
Patrick Flaction, Elitment
21 Sept. 2017 · 5:20 p.m.
203 views
Knee ligament injuries in immature athletes
Franck CHOTEL
22 Sept. 2017 · 7:48 a.m.
102 views
Osteochondral lesions
Franck ACCADBLED
22 Sept. 2017 · 8:11 a.m.
247 views
INJURIES WITH THE ORTHOPEDISTS - Q&A
Panel
22 Sept. 2017 · 8:54 a.m.
Back pain in young athletes
Liba SHEERAN
22 Sept. 2017 · 9:34 a.m.
Long term sequelae of youth overuse injuries
Mark BATT
22 Sept. 2017 · 10:19 a.m.
OVERUSE INJURIES - Q&A
Panel
22 Sept. 2017 · 10:40 a.m.
Concussions in young athletes : myths and reality
Christopher NEWMAN
22 Sept. 2017 · 10:52 a.m.
Screening for heart disease in sports – nonsense or necessary?
Matthias WILHELM
22 Sept. 2017 · 11:16 a.m.
Competitive Sport & Health: hidden issues
Gordon MATHESON
22 Sept. 2017 · 12:04 p.m.
Injury prevention programs : The 11+ Kids Project
Mario BIZZINI
22 Sept. 2017 · 2:12 p.m.
105 views
161 views
Parents’ Knowledge of Sport Psychology and Nutrition
Dr Camilla J. Knight
22 Sept. 2017 · 3:57 p.m.
Closing Address
Frederic Koehn, President Young Athletes Forum Foundation
22 Sept. 2017 · 6:04 p.m.