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The Chemical Industry under the 4th Industrial Revolution
Rafael Cayuela, Dow Chemicals
Thursday, Sept. 26, 2019 · 6:39 p.m. · 26m 24s
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and that first of all thank you very much for limitation is indeed a great
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pressure to be here back and uh an half opportunity to share some of the ideas
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i have to recognise that normally gonna going to the discussions i always have
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a lot of fat mediation for the people with one serving banana so discussing
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but i see most of you are either that's their purpose
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or warner has really sure you will feel i wanna presentation great
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if you don't feel like chemistry is at the core of the solution after that presentation
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i think uh i know when i shouldn't talk to us so
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i think i feel very proud to to discuss and i also realised
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when i got the assignment that that probably i'm talking about something that looks a little bit far away in at the same time easy
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really at the end of a very long day and if the candidate of the presentations where out
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there at the same level as the one from professor warner i think it was something windows they
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and i will try to be at the same level but i cannot guarantee that so
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i will try to do i will try to do my my best on the sense
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so also because professor weren't exactly uh i just to share it is member of our houses the really
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the advisory board so i'm very i'm very own or privileged to also learn any time from from team
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but also very present owner today to how about the bay on how are we gonna solve some
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of the issues that it's having this other fourteen that's the revolution is gonna put in front of us
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so let me start by something like to wake you up but i thought is that the you
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know the that that aside after the previous presentation this is something that we share in two thousand sixteen
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in darwin we're thinking about the fourteen that's the revolution and i thought that it
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was something that perhaps to to wake up ah on what exactly can i think
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oh what industry is subject one massive transformation any subject to really um a
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year the straps and we put that for us to start thinking it was
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happily use for our c. or in front of all the leaves a team
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to start to get my ideas about what exactly what i'm supposed to hop
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having said that i thought i'm gonna give you art kind of setting the scene away
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somewhat industry from an industry perspective i think our industry is already in transition correct multiple translations
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we have an interesting transition on the playground so was you know very well our industry
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has been sifting over the last seventeen twenty years from europe and north america into china
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this is why normally listening to understand the future of our industry we need to understand
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not only what us in europe is doing but also what time i want to do
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i have very interesting glasses aware time i want to well because likely they probably spare intentions
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corridor on the thirteen five yes plan of the forty five years planned that is currently negotiation
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the second may your uh trend uh before i entered into
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the forty nasa revolution is our industry is moving into a consolidation
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is moving to consolidation privatisation in bakeries over also this they don't enterprise
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and i think this is important to recognise because when we look up to the time
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is about what industry is gonna be confronted most of them are happily long turn oriented
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and a public and private companies they have different ways to make any
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says what is these issues and i think it's important to recognise this transformation
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that's an important one is of course our industry has been trying to the couple in different ways in terms of energy enemies
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data for euro but that we can have it for other
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regions we have been trying to continue reduce energy consumption in emissions
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as we know how that is not gonna be enough and we need to do much more but certainly is an encouraging sign
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another interesting aspect is our industry has been all performing in terms of but also for the returns
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you might be surprised on the other if you look at our industry from two thousand two
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thousand seventeen across the value saying can make us is basically is basically both commodity in especially materials
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has been outperforming intense of total report but as a whole the retort
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well i guess that has different really as many multiple reagan's one could be massive growth or this could be either card ones
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uh all this could be basically looking into the future but you will see
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a an intensely five competition from the value chain to move into these days
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another trend exactly something that we started to witnesses basically
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farther integration into our set or so basically they move
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into brutal into can you guys is getting traction and it's gonna continue to see that you need to the future
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fundamentally because the profitability of these that ms has been compromised but
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also the outlook for gasoline the mind in and and only money
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the future will happily fine better out there that isn't too but okay because we might see that in the nest in the next decade
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i know that one is a little bit more fully to
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give you want any half versions and it's basically industrial convergence
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industrial convergence is that we can foresee that by mid senseless partner when
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you know what car embodied sayings but happily that if you stop or yourself in the media long them
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you might ultimately ended up with the highest cumbersome but you can
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have that is basically molecules versus q. it's basically molecules versus data
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and we're gonna see in every single a yeah that molecules and
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data are gonna start competing somehow over the next over the next decade
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finally another important trend but important for for today is basically sustainability as
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we know all and i think uh also professor warner was mentioned in
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is becoming up top transformational factor b. c. sorry for for on a and b.
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w. c. that they do every d. i think that's where c. also paying attention
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and sustainability as you can see and especially i think that's a game professor water was mentioning
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resource some materials institution is the highest concern that was for these yeah
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it's followed by the company station on the corner me even far away
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even higher than happily played a great conflicts is an economies of course i
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would be also one or to see the colour we play a major role but i see this and i'm much more encouraged by saying something like that
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so if this is set in the ground let me give you some interesting perspectives where our industry quibble over
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then as they get and we could go for the business as usual sustainable scenarios and is that it isn't it
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if i look at into the business as usual and this is public
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information basis as useful for chemicals for the chemical industry is quite nice
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i mean if you look at the international uh energy agency report this is the future of better
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can because they talk about massive amount of growth intense of chemical demand for the reason we now
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of course higher living standards but also massive amount of population in very little economy
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at the same time if you look at for medicare on cause and energy different people
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is talking about energy of an that's all eventually we're talking about different kind of p. koreans
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some people is talking about twenty twenty seven some people is talking twenty thirty twenty
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forty there are many factors corvette is very complex to to really point point ways
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really identify what is the right time for that but as you can see they are okay there are many reasons why
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we start anticipating that okay you might have an a scenario high growth and the mind but no i regard on cost
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so if you are the c. awful lot chemical company that it isn't such a scenario you might be thinking
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well done looks pretty nice correct because of course i see
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hi ralph laudable goals and of course uh you will see
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a ah a great opportunity and again another opportunity for told us the holder it on to be to be higher than expected
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well the reality is that it's a little bit more complex correct as we know very well and if you look at here in this chart
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uh you can see on the on the top side a demand for can make us a times d.
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v. d. and then you can see some of the fact also it depends i was mentioning to you
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like a a or into can because so interested does formation so you can see all
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these elements there and then you see a lot of current cost so basically highly mon locals
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hi opportunity for growth right well if you want it to be more into the details of course different radio set up police all
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in different kind of landscapes correct if you i i guess in
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middle east that's pretty obvious if you are in north america somehow
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same but not the same but if you are into europe obviously you see a different kind of a
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scenario where if you look at your idol carmen course energy your courses higher have higher level of regulation
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you also have sealed to prices so somehow that that kind of profitability doesn't look so bad
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so you might be saying well is that is that good or bad alright well i missed the one second that i would come up with this stuff
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so the fourteen that's the revolution
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and let me also be another warning uh when we look at it with forty
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nasa revolution and i thing we are one of witness over them as the case
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significant amount of changes much more faster that we had been seen in the previous tickets and i will try to explain why
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when we look at in doubt affording that's the revolution that we're gonna be forum was basically talking about the digital revolution
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and even though they happily call attention to the fourteen that's the revolution and
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the importance of that we in how we belief is not only the to that
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is happily at least three make your revolution silently happening to us
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one is so spain one second is the time and effort the salsa
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in all of them they're gonna unfold over than is the case open up on acid different speak any different eleven
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and we we talking about the compensation simpler economy blasted ways
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but basically all of these things they were starting back when asked
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any data i think as as professor warner was set him you my feet over what because if
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you are managing a corporation you have thirty two hundred all these things at the same time correct
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so we put together a framework that that you can going to kind of that is that the forces
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and again if you pay you back and some of those are very timely topics
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so we're basically talking about on the sustainable revolution and again this is not
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ah conclude is not the phoenix seen at least it's up to the growing
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you talking about the company station you're talking about the capital simpler
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economy talking about diversification you talk about digital station dramatically station dislocation
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these intermediates and dysentery station be manifestation in seoul so
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basically sprayed a radius last is the amount of things
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that what really we need to conceive it as an industry in order to cope with a fourteen that's the rebels
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but then we focusing to some of them the first one is the company station and we can talk about that far that on the panel
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uh because i think they must is making very serious commitment to address some of these things
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but after the those are very complex things this that's out that we put together in two thousand thirteen
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long time ago and i know we're not going to be starting detail about what you can see here is basically
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an economic than this an economist an economist trying to understand what is climates in
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okay what is this basically you can see in nineteen seventy the star would you can see the amount of emissions
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correlated to g. d. b. so in nineteen seventy that lower population was around
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three point five billion people we were having a global economy
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of fifteen billion dollars and amount of global emissions was fifteen billion
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so basically we were utilise seemed one billionth on of c. o. two to three or one till so it was one to one
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then the population that well and we moved to nineteen seventy two thousand there and and what we got it was
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basically that but the uh economy multiply by for any missions
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multiply by two because we were becoming much more efficient right
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at the same time it's just up like that and and again he was that's our front two thousand thirteen
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we identify the quantum is gonna want to pull again but emissions my happily
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go to if you you say you have the same level of performances in nine
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they do we will two hundred forty eventually we thought it would go much lower so let's say ninety eighty or seventy
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well as we now operate on that but exactly man in the to the lisa scenario so that one point five we need to go to forty
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in fourteen already at that time he was very and it was difficult
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chorus for any normal ceasing ways fourteen you got tons of c. o. two
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and then what we did it was to convert it into what it means for a person for you monday
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and what it means for kenny got so forth and you got tons of c. o. two divided by three hundred sixty five days
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divided by nine billion people e. basically mean that my car but it
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doesn't see the stand and assuming we are only wanting we have only one
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so it's basically four thousand grams of c. o. two per capita and then
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you go to the second level and you say was four thousand grams of supercomputer
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well four thousand grams of super copy that is basically that i
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mean our car maybe around twenty kilometres or let's say fifty miles
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so basically we thought at that time any company industry answer visa that only unable to
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reduce somewhat emissions to the four thousand grams will be really uh so
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the future so in the the chemical industry has been helping correct too
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too narrow and to give much more carbon efficiency already doing just about as we now this is not gonna be enough
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so this is certainly a very critical a senate critical and
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dynamic for us because it's not only a hugely supporting e. d.
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but also for like an accounting there's the means that we also need to
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become when i solar cells in as we prevent because you you have been discussing
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is not an easy task for not technology point of view but also from many other considerations great
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so this is a a one may your uh let's say in but for us into the future
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the second one is of course as we also look sustainability not only from colour but happily from the portal uh environment
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from our planetary but that is of course a good economy is that play you know make your role in here we so
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is of course we're having different ideas what a simpler economists impacting ask for it
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for on a mechanical recycling to fix the recycling to
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carbon capture to buy economy in of course new business models
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in new business models of course we have not having today that we might have to develop into the future
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so things as i said i'm moving very fast correct and indeed yeah we saw faster if you look
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at how the industry's responding to these kind of things things that they have been already for a long time
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part of our of our agenda but now they're becoming relevant this is just i just
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put it because it was on the news up early on the twenty six of i was
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the better get some large petrochemical companies they're starting to look
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into that record of the future consortium so basically how does that
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others emissions into our in in the way and in the in the in the way that we need for the bodies everyman
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but the same time the twentieth of september just a couple of
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basic all basic colour plastics alliance to boost chemical exactly has been created
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so basically the industries in in moving already into into trying to call with some of these issues may you the solution i guess so
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we can discuss a little bit how are we doing that yeah how iffy police is gonna be too
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let's go now to the second revolution so the digit that so dizzy that
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evolution is basically all three things correct into connectivity between human sensors thing some machines
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is about data data creation correct so basically here we know that we are ready
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having an enormous amount of data but this is up early today we could be a that the same amount
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of data into yes that that really we created in there for life in the volume at least but it
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and this is when we have to they are around three devices three
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devices per capita connected horses just three devices and probably do you think about
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your says to develop work how many how many devices that we have already
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connected or interacting with our sales probably we adding that you want of twenty
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so he's gonna be an explosion as we have more people and more people connected intense of the data that we have one at the
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well if if the if the decision is about um into connectivity and
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data differ element in the most is active one uses peninsula computational capacity
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so probably most of you have been given about morsel and of course when all is not computational
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capacity double every yeah in terms of capacity but happily that use the course also by have maybe yeah
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well this is not really very uh very complex parade because normally we as
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individuals as humans we have been hard wire from really our origins really really really
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and in a really um and since our origins in him that
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no longer or somewhere in africa to really think in a linear way
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the problem is that these values not lenient or it is just when i sat and of course if i as you anyone of you how far is
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that light over there and just say said yes that any one of us
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can easily do fat yes that's correct but when we do fed yes that's exponentially
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is equivalent to thirty times going around planets that's so basically we and not
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capable to really understand what does the police station and the speed of the valley station is gonna happen to us
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and according to this thing without university they will say by twenty twenty nine that if
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you set about their computational capacity of one computer would be equivalent to one human being
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and then by twenty forty five the computational capacity one computer would be equivalent to the whole planet f.
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so then you might have to my wondering well so what do i do with that with se me well the
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first thing to me is actually what we know in
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the television is we have sorted assorted assorted it's innovation cycles
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and we say for instance this data for how long it took an apple commerce annexation cycles
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so you look at how long it took to get to reach affix
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telephone line hundred million people in the us it took almost like the yes
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when you look at how long it took for instance to get a washing machines he was fifty six the yes
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when you look at how long it took internet it was fitting yes when you look at how long it took
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to get poke a mon goal in the pockets of all of our of all of our says in our case
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it took only fifteen days so this equalisation is gonna basically yesterday the way we innovate
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and we get asked for in a massive way something that we happily cannot comprehend as humans unless you train yourself into that
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so indeed that you it's not all that technological paradigm exactly so sad part time so we won't
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technology c. p. c.'s into an associate media platforms by twenty twenty will have five year twenty twenty one
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five c. will accelerate as well the speed of the transformation of the data
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space and then we will have artificial intelligence quantum computing block chain robotics activity
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transforming everything we have and we know i think we have been talking about in the g. four point seal so this is from the supply side so i would
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not cover that one but let me give you a little bit of what the
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future could be when i talk not about the supply side by the consumer side
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so what happened when consumers not only are empowered by artificial intelligence and ability frames
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and that is that's selecting by before what is that i probably for me or not
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and they're actually using some sort of an uh spectral is button made
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there's in the had time to visualise what is the chemical composition of something
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exactly to what extent that getting caught up with composition not one mighty yeah the navigation can go to my body
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and i think and try not to go to what professor warmly saying actually one
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of the principles not real time adjustment parade of how do i see these hassle
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things in an interaction well the the price that they often individualist spectrometer for a person
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is around thousand dollars if five for another logical what the politician can do i foresee
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that in five yes we will have a spectrum of this in our phones all of us
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so we could go to the cell and test already what is that for doing for in terms of chemistry the high
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and maybe the padding around yesterday at camp about the navigated manner for the whole drawn so what does it mean for me
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so this is an example that by the way would put and we call it super smart sustainable market
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that we develop for safety under them essentially a study that would be talking about that in a second
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so the last seven and we talk about is the social revolution and of course i'm pretty sure you know all you know
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great already correct but this was a revolution is basically get
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that in simplify so how the race of the global active citizens
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so more and more citizens correlate becoming hello i'm able to
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express a day the science sustainable the science into the future
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i would notice them too much over there but i got i will just there i was in in uh
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i was in bone in june this year for the global chemical outlook convention and i got this is like
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problems caused by her say this chemicals are of the same magnitude as but not sounds
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so it was thought that to leaf with four thousand grams by twenty feet the is already quite complex
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what some other people are saying is that this is a this is a as of the under so from ten second
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europe they're saying well process what problems caused by have said is gonna cause i'm gonna be the next the wave after plummeting
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and the underlying thing is that eighty four percent of european how you dance are worried how can you guys in everyday
00:20:26
problems after that kind of an environment is is not surprise i think what does what a professor what i was saying
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similar studies as it is now the some commands in in in a
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in a us the climate foundation diplomats are you climb out a summit
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in new york bias centre was say in that they have been doing a survey we and
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six thousand people across eleven countries and all kind of ages and this report has
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been just realise they were saying that the chemical industries perceived to be the fit
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most environmentally harmful to um to all of us i mean the the environment in exactly
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also perceive something about as someone be pro unison economies my life in the chemical industry i
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felt very bad because when i look at these things and say we have to do something
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i know we have to do something so when i listen getting chemistry i feel very aspire
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but i think we need to do something because because this is something that we don't want to have correct
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so i'll the question was is the business as you saw the scenario one that without high
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growth lower part on cause great opportunity is happily so great or exactly going into something like that
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well let me tell you story and uh i will go into into reflections so this is reflections concludes
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so in europe and the european chemical industry put together a group of uh
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for the last two years in which we have been looking into the mix interests that you recently these young for the european comically
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and when we look at all these issues
00:22:01
the industry and this is by the way the report i it has
00:22:04
been just release in uh at the end of june so i would encourage
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anyone of you to download the and have some copies if you want
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to really uses them essentially vision for the european chemical industry into the future
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and what we decide over there it has been a two years for citing exercise
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with a whole industry he was that yes we don't want the bases that useless anyway
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basically this is the consumers as a size from the chemical industry saying that
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you remember um i think i have the slide but to be that way
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okay so in the previous size i put this is that user scenario
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euro processes that one more the the rest we don't know what what this
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report is basically saying is that the chemical industry is gonna look
00:22:48
all the different ways to make to bowl for the sustainable model so basically to blow like sustainable model
00:22:54
lower emissions simpler economy whatever you name it correct but basically they just anyone modelling to become in the global one
00:23:00
and of course as you know you can make this payment but it's very difficult to make it happen so this is not really doesn't have all
00:23:05
the solutions as my presentation doesn't have all the solutions but we put
00:23:09
we put the questions doing gaze with different people and it's the whole there's
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how are we gonna make that happen because we all want to do the same thing but there are certain things that need to happening we
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can talk about that later on as well how are we gonna do the hot so that would be my first reflection to start with you
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the second reflection would be i think innovation is gonna be back any has to be back
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i think when i look at the history of the chemical induced yes and it has an economies
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i think the chemical industry seems the beginning has beams solve the problem
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that's what the chemical industry has been doing what we're moving people to see these end to end and it
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out after the second and does the revolution in we need not only to improve hiding conditions we developed alright
00:23:51
when we actually have to improve mobility and we have usually not the rubber we
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develops impacted rabbit so basically you know it better than me so you can go out
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after the molecule by molecule why has been developed any was always trying to solve a problem
00:24:03
i see in the in the city the problem of the industry over the last twenty fifty yes it was not viewed innovation
00:24:10
indeed we moved from chemical molecules on what we could discoveries publications but
00:24:14
they fundamentally slow over the last twenty fifty ascii was basically the entrance
00:24:18
of billions of people into the global economy of raising the standards for millions of people including china
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yeah fundamentally as well trying to uh to to enjoy the longest period
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of ways creation m. p.'s that we have since the second world war
00:24:33
so they must be somehow has been focusing from moving from what i can simple applications but at the same time as we move in front
00:24:39
let's say a few innovation to kind of improving processes we more or better
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i think as we move forward i see now we're moving into
00:24:47
the new part of line of technological convergence of sign intersections between
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feces biology and chemistry buddies now you put that i wouldn't be
00:24:55
today station i would move into a new paradigm through quantum gravity
00:24:59
so that would be uh i'm just finishing so i'll just if it is there as a fraction is that i think will timidly depend
00:25:06
on ask alright so this is that's our that we also use without
00:25:09
warning this in which you said human rapidly these tend to be lenient
00:25:13
but if you look at this point is not the normal used in deception is one of the exponents yet
00:25:17
so exactly or depending on all of us in court obviously the
00:25:21
seat to really take advantage of these technologies movement than is innovation
00:25:26
and then i would just finish with this is like this is not really the way now we are aspiring to move enough to lead our ambition
00:25:33
so this is the only corporate is like half so that our new ambition is
00:25:37
basically to become the most innovative customer sentry inclusive unsustainable materials science company in the world
00:25:44
but i think that's you recognising we recognise the challenges that
00:25:47
we have are things that we cannot do a lot more than
00:25:52
ever i'm very confident that with people like you or i just
00:25:55
the the seed sprouting digitally station in focusing on sustainability working together
00:25:59
i'm pretty sure the chemical industry would be again at the core of the fourteen duster thank you very much
00:26:13
thank you very much for the stock and i
00:26:16
i'll stick to stay on the stage okay and it's high
Conference Program
Green Chemistry: The Molecular Mechanisms of Sustainability and Innovation
John Warner, Warner Babcock Institute for Green Chemistry (USA)
Sept. 26, 2019 · 6:09 p.m.
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The Chemical Industry under the 4th Industrial Revolution
Rafael Cayuela, Dow Chemicals
Sept. 26, 2019 · 6:39 p.m.
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Panel Discussion, moderated by Bérangère Magarinos-Ruchat, Global Head Sustanabillity, Firmenich
John Warner, Rafael Cayuela, Nicoletta Piccolrovazzi, Martin Vollmer, Juan Gonzalez-Valero, James Clark
Sept. 26, 2019 · 7:06 p.m.
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